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How to tell if your DFS lineup is on pace

Live points alone do not tell you if you are winning. Here is what pace vs projection means and how to read it during a slate.

DFS guides · 2 min read
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Short answer: Pace is your live fantasy total measured against where it should be at this point in the games, based on each player's projection and how much of their game is left. It is the single most useful live number in DFS, because raw points on their own do not tell you whether you are ahead or behind. A lineup on 80 with most games still to play is in great shape, and a lineup on 80 with everyone finished is done.

Why raw points mislead you

Points only tell you what has happened, not what is left to come. Two lineups can both be on 80 and be in completely opposite situations: one has a full quarter of scoring ahead, the other has nothing left. Without pace you cannot tell which is which, so you cannot tell if you are actually winning.

What pace vs projection means

Every player has a projection, an expected final fantasy score. As their game plays out, you can compare what they have scored so far against how much of that projection they should have banked by now. Add it up across your lineup and you get pace: are you ahead of, behind, or tracking your projected finish. A player at 10 points who was projected for 12 has almost delivered. A player at 10 projected for 30 has a long way to go, and that is a very different read.

How to read it during a slate

  • On pace or ahead: you are tracking your projected finish or beating it. Good, but check where it is coming from.
  • Behind pace: your total looks fine but you are not keeping up with expectations. This is the warning a raw score hides.
  • By player: the real value is spotting the one guy dragging you down while the score still looks healthy, so you know exactly where your slate is being won or lost.

In LiveSlates, pace against the field average is there on the free tier, alongside hot and cold and your live total. Pace against your own projection, the sharper read, comes with Pro, since it needs your own projections. Either way you get a per-player breakdown so you can see who is carrying you and who is quietly killing you.

See it live

Watch pace update in real time on a replayed slate at the NFL demo.

Common questions

Where do projections come from? On Pro you add your own projections, and pace is measured against them. The free tier measures pace against the field average instead.

Does DraftKings show pace? No. DraftKings shows raw points. Pace vs projection is what a dedicated tracker adds.

Is pace useful for cash and GPP? Yes for both, but especially in large-field GPPs where knowing early that you are behind pace tells you whether you are still live.

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